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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.